For the article 104, I would like to present you three new reports that try to answer several questions such as:
- What can AI do?
- Where is it headed?
- How fast will it be adopted?
The answers that the reports provide are very interesting. It turns out that AI is now doing less than most people think, but that it will do more than most people think and in more places. In fact, AI may be applied everywhere and adopted faster than previous technologies such as computers or the electricity.
AI is speedy: the field is really moving quickly. Socially beneficial products and applications are made widely available. For instance, it can be found in driverless cars and image recognition. Nowadays, researchers all around the world are striving to understand its impact on society.
The McKinsey Global Institute published a report about Automation and Jobs. It shows a host of different paths that AI Technology could take, as well as its effect on workers depending on the job category and the country. Not surprisingly, the jobs most at risk involve repetitive tasks and the most job security involve empathy or creativity (psychologists, artists, writers). In my opinion, even jobs involving creativity will be automated.
Some results are stunning: the technology could replace 375 million employees worldwide by 2030. About 1/3 of the U.S workforce will have to switch to new occupations by 2030. It is the same for other advanced economies such as Germany and Japan. Nonetheless, China may not meet those numbers in 2030 as employers will still find it cheaper to employ humans.
Researchers from Stanford, the MIT and other organizations published the AI Index. It is a project that brings together 100 years of study on AI, and it aspires to be a comprehensive resource for policymakers, researchers, executives, journalists, and the public. It details as many measurable dimensions of the field as possible, including the social impacts. You can use it to develop intuitions about this fascinating but complex topic. As a matter of fact, AI is complex because it is growing incredibly fast. To give you an idea of how fast it is growing, I want to emphasize that they initially planned to publish major study every 5 years, but it was not enough given the speed of progress and investment. In this report, you will find many charts. For example, there is a clear chart showing that image recognition and speech recognition programs have matched or surpassed human capabilities last year. Yet, Artificial Intelligence has not impacted the economy for the moment.
In fact, all the research and all the investments made to push AI forward have a really small effect on productivity. Researchers from MIT and the University of Chicago published an article in November to try to explain why. They explained that there is a lag in the adoption and effective use of AI.
Put together, those three reports show us that the technology is just one part of the equation and that economics, government policy, and social attitudes will also play a major role. Actually, all those reports are showing that a humongous transition is taking place. A transition that will have more impact than the agricultural and industrial revolution combined. To give you an idea, if we look at the adoption of major technology such as the electricity or computers, it seems that AI will follow a similar pattern but at a different pace (faster!). For instance, electric motors were introduced in 1880 but productivity gains showed up in 1920. AI will follow the same path but faster. Consequently, researchers predict that the social consequences of Artificial Intelligence will be more brutal than any past transition. According to them, the more the adoption goes faster, the more social consequences.
The main point is: how can we manage this transition? It may be extremely hard to handle as it will imply much retraining for all the workers so that they can find new employment.
Do you realize it? 2030 is just 12 years away, it will happen so fast! There are some AI skeptics but I told you: AI is by far the most important Technology of our era: it will happen.
Thank you so much for reading guys, that is the end of Article 104. As always, I’m here to help. Hit me up on any of my social media below and stay in touch!
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